I got caught in a bubble and ebullient feelings when it comes to crypto. Fortunately, I stopped buying in February because it was looking awfully bubbly to me, but I should’ve listened to myself. From this, I’ve learned to stop sticking in trades that I’m not confident in. As soon as I begin to doubt it, there’s no reason for me to stay in it, especially if it looks like it’s about to enter a bear market. I became overconfident because I made money on Elon Musk news and thought I was safe. Then, China banning crypto transactions and…

Just some thoughts on this crypto I was looking at. While it offers a fascinating proof of concept, my doubts about the long-term sustainability of the project prevent me from entering the space, although I grow more confident in my NFT gaming thesis.

What is AXS?
AXS is a governance token for the AXIE infinite game, which if you don’t know what it is, is a game where you collect pets (unique NFTs) and complete missions with them. While the premise initially sounds interesting, anyone who takes five minutes to look up the actual game play will quickly realize the game…

QE locks up liquidity in markets so we don’t see it in taxpayers (although it lifts asset prices) ie less consumer inflation (making CPI a lie)

Rev repo does not represent demand for treasuries but rather excess liquidity. Ie ppl want to park money somewhere, so if treasury yields went up once, there’s a lot of demand for us treasuries but the Fed must recognize there is a system of too much cash (ie raise interest rates but as said before, the Fed doesn’t want this, so they’ll likely make a permanent repo facility and let it be; or figure…

In part due to some terrible time management on my part, I have not posted in a long while; however, my market thesis remains largely unchanged. In short, I am somewhat short TSLA hedged with long tech. (Although I believe this trade has somewhat deteriorated as explained in a previous post). I am long more eco-friendly coins while short/market neutral on BTC and ETH. These two thesis take place in a backdrop of a glut of cash in markets, evidenced by the massive reverse-repo operations currently going on as companies have nowhere else to place their cash. I believe it…

Unfortunately, my account originally financed with $500 USD was closed with a value of $30 USD over around 1000 trades. During the course of this experience, I learned several interesting things that will allow me to trade my larger investment portfolio with stronger technical analysis.

My Personality:

The main thing I realized was that I was extremely unwilling to use a stop loss. While I did save myself several times by stopping out right before the market turned extremely against me, I would hesitate sometimes, leading me to take larger losses than I should have. For this, I developed a…

I’ve been a bit busy with medical finals approaching, so I just wanted to give a super brief overview of my current investment decisions that I am looking at. (These are written as a notebook to myself on where I’m viewing the market rather than for an external reader)

Biden’s 3 trillion stimulus plan

Obviously, this continues the inflation narrative, but since he plans to finance a large portion of this through higher taxes, we could potentially see some capital outflow out of the US. However, I think it’s most likely that stocks will continue rising on inflation expectations but…

A Foray Into Futures

My Technique: I tried to catch falling knives on the way toward the supporting trendline and cut losses if the supporting trendline was significantly broken. I traded using 1–60 minute charts.

The Rules

Watch the trend. Then when it goes the opposite way, begin to bet on the trend continuing.

Never be net against the long-term trend!!

If a breakout starts to occur (and continues a couple ticks on the longer term (hourly chart at min) , immediately get out and switch sides, but be ready to cut losses fast

Patience is where you make money

Note: I was meant to do a nightmare review of what the Fed could do, but I thought my positions were pretty obvious. Also been a bit sick, so this is a bit rushed

Market Participants are all interested in two ideas

  1. The possibility of a market crash
  2. Earnings per Share are down/Debt is up

This effectively suggests that the stock market has become disconnected from its fundamentals. However, as can be clearly seen from the chart, earnings don’t seem to be down much, but this doesn’t take into account the massive printing that’s been done in recent months and…

What are CLOs

Some investors fear that Collateralized Loan Obligations have begun to mirror the Collateralized Debt Obligations that were held responsible for the 2008 crisis. However, while both are composed of toxic loans that borrowers are likely to default on that have been dubbed AAA grade simply because they are “sufficiently diversified,” the market risk for these loans does not lie with banks. There are currently roughly $700 billion CLOs outstanding, but only $99 billion are held by American banks, making up at most 1.5% of the balance sheet at the largest holders such as J.P. Morgan Chase in…

What is a lost decade?

The term was originally coined to describe Japan post 1991 when the Nikkei Index fell from its 1980 highs. In inflation adjusted terms, the Nikkei has never recovered from its 1991 high (although the Nikkei 225 has recently surpassed its 1991 high in nominal terms). During the boom, Japan lowered public spending and, toward the end, raised interest rates to attempt to slow the bubble, all while paying down government debt. These inherently set up a deflationary atmosphere even as Japanese companies, flush on foreign cash, found no avenues to further growth, pushing their money…

Joshua Tsai

Medic student Just noting down my trades for review

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